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Commentary
Our analysis as at the 25.04 highlighted a bearish flag pattern before the EURUSD resumed it's downtrend towards 1.114.
However, there has been a significant positive reversal for the currency pair since then on the back of some weaker than expected US data.
Actual USD PCE Core (YoY) (MAR) was 1.6% vs 1.7% forecast and USD ISM Manufacturing ( APR ) was 52.8 actual vs 55 forecast.
This has resulted in EURUSD rising to at 1.124 as the 50 day moving average of 1.1222 rose through the longer-term 200 day moving average of 1.1176 indicating a buy alert.
Also, the 100 day moving average currently at 1.1207 then crossed the 200 day moving average confirming the buy signal.
Despite the buy signal and short term uptrend we maintain our short position and will look to add to it if EURUSD breaks the next resistance level seen at around 1.1265.
This is because EURUSD is still in a long term downtrend and we believe that the market is seeing the FOMC as being overly dovish with many expecting a rate cut of up to 1% between now and year end.
Ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting we expect rates to remain unchanged and there to be a significant volatility , also we will be paying close attention to Powell's Press Conference after the FOMC meeting for any major shifts in monetary policy .